The Path to Victory
There’s been a lot of talk about the Presidential election of 2016 and how close it was. Trump only lost to Hillary in Minnesota by 44,765 votes or 1.52%. That's the closest it's been since 1984, the year I graduated from high school. People have taken great encouragement from these numbers and have strategized to make up that difference in Greater Minnesota by increasing the vote total. The GOP candidate running against me is focusing almost exclusively on this plan.
But is that the real story?
We all know this map that shows almost all of Minnesota voting Red in 2016 with only 9 counties voting for Hillary - St. Louis, Lake, Carlton, Olmstead, Washington, Dakota, Ramsey and Hennepin counties.
Here is a table of how the votes came in.
County Trump Hillary
All of Minnesota 1,322,951 1,367,716 (-44,765, -1.52%)
Cook Co. 1,156 1,192
Lake Co. 2,932 3,007
Carlton Co. 8,160 8,460
Olmstead Co 35,668 36,268
St Louis Co. 44,630 57,771
Washington Co. 64,428 67,086
Dakota Co. 99,583 110,483
Ramsey Co. 70,894 177,738
Hennepin Co. 191,770 429,288
Totals 519,221 891,293
The rest of Minnesota voted like this.
Red Minnesota 803,730 476,423
That would mean that for Trump to win he only needs to increase Red Minnesota turnout by 5.6% - a reachable proposition.
The correct question is, did Trump do better than previous Republican candidates or did Hillary just do so poorly? Let’s take a look at recent history.
Trump only received 2,726 votes more than Romney did in 2012.
Here are the vote totals from the previous 4 Presidential elections.
Hillary 1,367,716 2016
Obama 1,546,167 2012
1,573, 354 2008
Kerry 1,445,014 2004
If we combine the last 3 Presidential elections we get an average vote total for a Democratic candidate to be 1,495,745 votes. This puts any Republican candidate at a 172,794 vote disadvantage not 44,765.
In order to overcome this number, Red Minnesota would need to increase its vote total by 21.5%. That is a big number.
The other option is flipping votes in the metro. That is my approach. I need to flip 9.6% of voter’s minds in the Metro and other Blue Minnesota areas.
The best plan is a combination of efforts. If we can increase Greater Minnesota Red turnout by 10% and flip 5.2 % in Blue Minnesota we can do this. But we still need the Metro. We can’t give up on the Twin Cities.
It’s a tough path to victory but it is reachable.
Help me do it. Elections are expensive. Click below to help Minnesota get real conservative representation in the US Senate.
Rob Barrett, Jr.
Candidate for US Senate